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        "sender": "user",
        "content": "Search Manifold for AI markets; don't place a bet.",
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        "tool": "search_markets",
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        "tool_result_preview": "{\n  \"markets\": [\n    {\n      \"closeTime\": 1830412740000,\n      \"createdTime\": 1676933242898,\n      \"id\": \"A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3\",\n      \"isResolved\": false,\n      \"probability\": 0.3299999999999998,\n      \"question\": \"In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?\",\n      \"url\": \"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener\",\n     ...    \"createdTime\": 1776564876031,\n      \"id\": \"gOlddESzER\",\n      \"isResolved\": false,\n      \"probability\": 0.2432609503113512,\n      \"question\": \"Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026?\",\n      \"url\": \"https://manifold.markets/A/major-company-suffers-serious-damag\",\n      \"volume\": 5448.82845392448\n    }\n  ],\n  \"query\": \"AI\",\n  \"results_count\": 100,\n  \"source\": \"manifold\"\n}"
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        "content": "Found 100 open AI markets. Here are the standout ones, ranked by trading volume:\n\nHighest-activity markets\n- In early 2028, will an AI generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? — 33.0% · vol M$12,188,059 · https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener\n- By end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal LLM pattern unfamiliar to 2006 AI/cognitive...s-human-intellect-by\n\nA couple of notes on reading these: the movie market dominates volume by a wide margin (M$12.2M), so it's the most liquid AI bet on the board right now. Several near-certain benchmark markets (math conjecture, GPQA) are already priced above 94%, so there's little edge left there.\n\nNo bet placed, as requested. Want me to pull full detail or trader positions on any of these?",
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